Southwestern Commentator

Issue date: 1/1/01 Section: Politics

January 2008

    While California’s Presidential Primary is not until Feb. 5, many SW students already have a candidate in mind.
    In December 2007, The Commentator asked SW students whom they would vote for if the Presidential primary elections were held that day.
    Of the choices presented to the 235 students who responded, Sen. Hillary Clinton led the field of Democrats with 33.2 percent, while Sen. Barack Obama came in second with 24.3 percent. Former Sen. John Edwards came in a distant third with 11.9 percent of the vote.
    Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani led the pack of Republicans with 9.4 percent, followed by Sen. John McCain and Rep. Ron Paul who were tied with 3.8 percent.
    Approximately one month has passed since The Commentator poll, and with two states down for the Democrats, three for the Republicans (four including this past Tuesday’s primary in Michigan), and five different winners, the contest to become the next President of the United States is anything but over.
    Leading up to the Iowa caucuses, the message of change from Obama seemed to be spreading across the country. At   rally just more than a month before the Iowa caucuses, a 6,000-plus crowd of young, enthusiastic college students and middle-aged Baby Boomers packed San Francisco’s Civic Auditorium.
    Chants for change at the rally were ubiquitous, and the sense of something fresh was permeating. Obama’s stump speech was reminiscent of the sense of empowerment and revolution that many Boomers have tried to convey to their children for years.
    Even 2L Evening student and Republican Neil Butala was inspired by the Obama event.
    “I didn’t go in knowing much about (Obama), but left knowing he was qualified to lead us in a new direction.”
    Butala found Obama’s message “very uplifting” and he felt a “sense of solidarity” at the event.
    This momentum first propelled Obama’s campaign into contention with frontrunner Clinton and Edwards, and then thrust him ahead.
    Obama shocked his opponents with a sweeping victory in Iowa, taking 38 percent of the vote, followed by John Edwards with 30 percent, and Clinton with 29 percent.
    The media blitz that followed Iowa passed frontrunner status to Obama and began labeling Clinton as a “has been.”
    ABC polling director Gary Langer reported, “A growing focus on fresh ideas coupled with lingering doubts about Hillary Clinton’s honesty and forthrightness are keeping the Democratic presidential contest close.”
    Despite talk of a campaign collapse and some out of character behavior by Clinton, she took her message of experience and a full-throttle criticism of her opponents on to the New Hampshire primary.
    This strategy and a new open approach with voters and reporters led to one of the most startling results in modern election history.
    On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, media outlets reported polls that gave Obama a 9-to-15-point lead. On Election Day though, voters proved the pollsters and pundits wrong, giving Clinton the win over Obama by less than 3 percentage points.
    On the Republican side, very few people even knew who Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was and even fewer knew he was running for president.
    But with the help of solid debate performances, Evangelical-Christian voters, and celebrity spokesperson Chuck Norris, Huckabee skyrocketed in Iowa and convincingly defeated Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
    Days later, Romney went on to win the under-reported Wyoming caucuses by a significant margin.
    And in New Hampshire, after a devastating summer, McCain rekindled the fire in his campaign and trounced his nearest opponent, Romney by six points with the help of independent voters.
    With 99 percent of the country still left to vote, there is much time to play before this game is over.

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